The United Kingdom’s non-life insurance sector is expected to remain on stable footing in the near term, according to credit rating agency AM Best, which recently reaffirmed its outlook for the market.
One of the more significant developments in late 2024 was the upward revision of the Ogden discount rate, which plays a central role in determining compensation for long-term personal injury claims.
The change—raising the rate to 0.50%—offered insurers some financial breathing room, particularly those with limited reinsurance cover.
The revision triggered one-time reserve releases, boosting year-end results for several firms.
AM Best sees this adjustment as a short-term positive for underwriting margins, though notes that the benefit may be short-lived as competitive pricing pressure could force insurers to pass some of the gains back to consumers.
The UK motor insurance market, long known for its razor-thin margins and price-driven competition, saw a strong rebound in 2024 following two years of heavy losses. Premium hikes and tighter underwriting controls helped restore profitability, albeit modestly. But this improvement may prove temporary.
According to the Association of British Insurers (ABI), average motor premiums began to ease in the latter half of 2024, and AM Best expects that softening trend to carry into 2025. In such a volatile pricing landscape, sustaining underwriting profits will be an ongoing challenge.
In contrast, the home insurance segment continues to lag behind. Despite inflation and repeated extreme weather events—including the highest number of named storms in nearly ten years—premium levels have not kept pace with rising claims costs.
Data from the ABI suggests that inflation-adjusted pricing for home insurance in 2024 remained below 2017 levels, while the cost of claims has surged by over 50%. Although the Flood Re program has provided some relief to insurers, AM Best believes the home insurance market still lacks the necessary pricing corrections to restore balance.
Economic headwinds are also a concern. Although the UK ended 2024 with a relatively stable inflation rate of 2.5%, as reported by the Bank of England, sluggish economic growth is expected to continue into 2025.
That stagnation could limit insurance demand across both personal and commercial lines. AM Best also highlights the possibility of global economic shocks—particularly from uncertain US foreign policy—as a potential risk factor, noting that unexpected disruptions to global supply chains could spark inflationary pressure, further complicating the pricing landscape for insurers.
One area where insurers are finding support is on the investment side. Interest rates, although now in a gradual downward cycle, remain elevated compared to the past two decades.
After a series of rate hikes between late 2021 and mid-2023, the Bank of England began easing rates more cautiously than markets initially anticipated. As of February 2025, the base rate stood at 4.5%. AM Best points out that this “higher for longer” environment provides an opportunity for insurers to improve investment income without taking on excessive risk—a welcome buffer in a sector where underwriting results are often marginal.
In summary, AM Best’s stable outlook reflects a market bolstered by regulatory adjustments and investment gains, but also weighed down by weak economic momentum and persistent competitive pressures. The path ahead will require continued pricing discipline and strategic agility.
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